Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum Predicts Above-Normal Rainfall for Several Countries
The 30th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has released its latest climate outlook for the period of February to June 2025. According to the forum’s statement, this period marks the occurrence of a bimodal rainfall season as well as the transition to winter over much of Southern Africa.
The statement highlights an increased probability of above-normal rainfall across multiple countries in the region, including South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar. Additionally, wetter-than-usual conditions are expected over the Mozambican Channel. These forecasts are derived from dynamical climate models, which assess climate variability and predict seasonal patterns.
The forum also noted that its outlook aligns with global forecasts from multimodel ensembles developed by international climate prediction centers. These models, produced by Global Producing Centres under the mandate of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), support the SARCOF’s prediction of a wet season for most of the region.
However, not all parts of Southern Africa are expected to receive above-average rainfall. The northern and northeastern areas of the region are forecasted to experience below-normal rainfall conditions. The statement clarifies that these predictions remain relatively consistent across the February to June period, with only minor variations between intra-seasons.
The climate outlook serves as an important guide for governments, farmers, and disaster management authorities, helping them prepare for potential impacts such as flooding in high-rainfall areas or dry conditions in northern regions. With the seasonal transition underway, stakeholders will closely monitor evolving weather patterns and adapt their strategies accordingly.
